Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Complex System of Systems (SoS) Modeling and Simulation (M&S) Environments

Prevailing Modeling and Simulation (M&S) techniques have struggled to provide meaningful quantitative results in M&S of complex System of Systems (SoSs). This paper reports on systems thinking applied to “how” M&S techniques should shift to allow a next generation of quantitative tools and techniques. The imperative is to provide quantitative performance results across the constituent interfaces in a modeled architecture. Statistical and parametric methods that address Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) are presented in the light of a new paradigm in M&S using graph theory based tools and databases to allow deeper insight into the fundamental problem of interoperability modeling. A future vision is suggested that presents the opportunity for systems engineers to lead a transformation in M&S of complex SoS.